🤔 Netherlands🇳🇱: has the regulator succeeded in moving players from the illegal gambling market to the legal one❓

🤔 Netherlands🇳🇱: has the regulator succeeded in moving players from the illegal gambling market to the legal one❓
The short answer: the Dutch Gambling Authority (KSA) believes it has... However, the available data do not provide conclusive evidence.

➡️ What was measured: the assessment considered not only the number of consumers using licensed services, but also gross revenue figures for the "grey" and "white" market segments. Although approximate, these figures provide insight into the market's financial activity. This approach makes some sense, but metrics for the illegal market can only be estimated "by eye". As a result, there is a margin of error that is likely to be far from negligible.

➡️ Market trends that have encouraged the regulator's optimism:

📉 The total volume of the Netherlands' legal gambling market in 2025 was approximately EUR 4.1 billion, compared with EUR 4.5 billion in 2024. Activity in online casinos declined by 18.2%, while online sports betting fell by 30.2%. The KSA attributes this decline to stricter player protection requirements introduced in late 2024 and tax increases in January 2025.

📈 Nevertheless, the "white" market showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2026. Gross gaming revenue reached approximately EUR 670 million, an increase of around 11% compared with the EUR 602 million recorded in the second half of 2025.

➡️ By segment: in the first half of 2026, licensed operators accounted for 59% of the gambling market's total gross revenue. Compared with the 54% estimated for the second half of 2025, this represents an improvement.

➡️ Player preferences: the regulator also estimated that approximately 94% of consumers use exclusively licensed operators. However, as we have already seen, the share of revenue generated by the legal market remains considerably lower. This suggests that users of unlicensed platforms may spend significantly more on average. Exactly how much more? Nobody knows, as reliable metrics for this segment are unavailable.

➡️ Growth in the number of gambling accounts: the total number of consumers is also worth examining. From July to December 2025, licensed operators recorded 1.38 million active accounts per month. From January to July 2026, this figure reached 1.48 million. However, the regulator acknowledges that the average monthly number of players in the first half of 2026 was approximately 490,000. This is because one player may hold multiple accounts across different platforms. That is precisely why the number of accounts was excluded from the analysis as an indicator.

➡️ Worth noting: approximately 33% of the accounts analyzed belonged to consumers aged 18 to 24. Meanwhile, advertising for unlicensed gambling services continues to reach consumers through Facebook and Instagram. In fact, these platforms accounted for more than 90% of the advertisements reviewed for the study.

Overall, it remains unclear how successful the regulator has been in shifting players from the illegal market to the legal one.

#news #Europe #igaming #industryanalysis

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