🧐 Brazil🇧🇷: Lula is re-elected. What should the betting industry expect❓

🧐 Brazil🇧🇷: Lula is re-elected. What should the betting industry expect❓

With 99.99% of polling stations counted, Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva of the Workers’ Party received 51.79% of the vote, compared with 48.21% for right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. The election result is only the starting point for assessing what comes next for the betting industry. Read more…

➡️ On September 25, Lula announced a complete ban on online gambling in Brazil, with the exception of poker and state lotteries. The measure was followed by a wave of lawsuits filed by betting operators and platforms that had invested substantial amounts in licensing and taxes.

➡️ Brazil has a strong football tradition, and many clubs have lost sources of funding. Fans have also expressed dissatisfaction, which could have electoral repercussions. In the first round, the right-wing candidate outpolled the incumbent president. In the second round, Lula won, but by a significantly narrower margin than expected.

➡️ In any case, state policy over the next four years is expected to focus on banning the industry and imposing the corresponding sanctions.

👉 During a live broadcast on Thursday, October 22, Lula reiterated that betting will not return. This suggests that Provisional Measure 1,394/2026, initially introduced as a temporary measure, could become permanent.

👉 The proposal received support from the Minister of Communications, who has thus become an ally capable of helping turn it into a political strategy.

👉 As of today, 85 authorizations issued by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance (SPA-MF), which allowed 188 brands to operate, have lost their validity. The fees paid will not be refunded. The renewal deadline for Stake, which challenged the measure, also expired yesterday. Without a retroactive decision with ex tunc effect, the licenses will remain annulled.

➡️ A retroactive decision appears unlikely. The future of the sector lies in the hands of Justice Luís Fux of the Supreme Federal Court. He will decide on the request to suspend the effects of the provisional measure. Lula’s re-election adds another political factor to this context.

➡️ In Congress, an immediate review or reconsideration of the provisional measure also appears unlikely.

➡️ Does this mean the end of the industry❓ Not necessarily. The political situation is far from stable, and developments in Latin America can change rapidly. The Congress elected on October 4 is more conservative and further to the right, meaning that the re-elected president will have to govern with a legislature less aligned with his political agenda.

Further developments are expected.

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