📝 Boston Consulting Group report on the state of the global payments market in 2026 (part 1)

📝 Boston Consulting Group report on the state of the global payments market in 2026 (part 1)

Original report

1⃣ Overview

🔴 Global payments revenue is estimated to grow from USD 2.0 trillion in 2025 to USD 2.6 trillion in 2030, although the average annual growth rate is expected to decline from 7% to 5%. Transaction revenue is expected to grow by approximately 6% annually, while non-transaction revenue will grow by 5%.

🔴 Growth will vary across regions: Middle East and Africa — around 8% annually; Latin America — 7%; Europe and North America — around 5%. Revenue is growing more slowly than operating expenses (7% versus 9%), resulting in weaker operating leverage.

🔴 The key success factor is becoming the ability to manage complexity: routing, liquidity, risks, compliance, and the customer interface.

2⃣ The payments industry is undergoing a reset

🟣The main growth drivers are weakening: opportunities to transition to electronic payments are becoming exhausted, while competition and regulatory pressure are increasing.

🟣Growth is shifting toward emerging markets, while mature markets are facing slower growth and margin compression.

🟣Payments companies are experiencing declining valuations, while investors are demanding evidence of sustainable, profitable growth.

🟣Stablecoins and tokenized assets are moving beyond the crypto market. The most promising use cases include cross-border corporate payments, treasury transfers, platform payouts, remittances, and foreign-exchange settlement. By mid-2026, the crypto market was estimated at approximately USD 2.3 trillion, while stablecoins reached USD 260 billion. Traditional and tokenized payment rails will continue to coexist for an extended period.

🟣Payment sovereignty: 137 countries have government-run or regulated instant payment systems. The role of national infrastructure is growing, while the global market is becoming increasingly fragmented. A provider's value depends on its ability to offer customers broad coverage.

3⃣ Differences between business models

🔵Traditional acquirers and processors are the most vulnerable when scale is not accompanied by rapid product development and direct customer relationships.

🔵Vertical SaaS retains its advantages through deep integration within a specific industry or geography.

🔵Card issuers remain an attractive business for major players, but face slower migration from cash to cards and growing A2A payments.

🔵Payment networks must demonstrate the value of additional services, digital assets, and agentic commerce.

🔵NPLs and digital assets create new opportunities, but their long-term sustainability has not yet been demonstrated.

4⃣ BCG recommendations for companies:

🟡simplify the business and focus on segments and regions where the company can create a clear advantage;

🟡invest in business model durability: predictable revenue, B2B, tokenization, and anything that helps strengthen customer relationships;

🟡align investor interests with new business models: clearly indicate whether the business is growing or mature.

(To be continued)

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